The Observatory makes is possible to fuel the Emerging Trend Radar of the Group, which maps the most material emerging trends for the Group that should be kept under observation and monitoring.
In the context of the Radar, each topic is classified based on:
- prevailing nature: the radar is divided into four quadrants that correspond to the four dimensions of the external environment: social, technological, environmental and political (STEP);
- level of maturity: in the innermost circle the radar includes the emerging themes that are material for the insurance sector within the next 5 years and in the outer circle the emerging themes that will become material after 5 years.
DARK SIDE OF TECHNOLOGY
- TECHNO-DEPENDENCY
- MEDICAL CONDITIONS
- RETURN TO NATURE
- DEEP FAKE
- DISINFORMATION
- DIGITAL DETOX
- DISTRACTION
- FAKE NEWS
- REGULATION OF TECHNOLOGY
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND ROBOTICS
- ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
- MACHINE LEARNING
- DEEP LEARNING
- QUANTUM COMPUTING
- CHATBOT
- DIGITAL ORACLES
- ETHICAL DILEMMA
- BIG DATA
- RESPONSIBILITY
- GENERATIVE AI
- HUMAN CENTRIC AI
- MAN-MACHINE RELATIONSHIP
- ROBOT ADVISOR
- CAREGIVER ROBOTS
- ROBOTS FOR HEALTHCARE
Internet of everything
- 5G & BEYOND
- SMART CAR
- SMART CITY
- SMART OBJECTS
- SMART HOME
- QUANTIFIED SELF
- SMART OFFICE
- WEARABLES
- INTERNET OF PETS
- INTEROPERABILITY
- IoT
- NEW COMPUTATIONAL FRONTIERS
- INDUSTRY 5.0
- DATA AS NEW CURRENCY
- BIO COMPUTING
- CONTAMINATION
- CYBER RISK
- PRIVACY
- BIG DATA
New mobility
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES
- HYBRID VEHICLES
- SMART CAR
- HYDROGEN MOBILITY
- MOBILITY AS A SERVICE
- MICROMOBILITY
- ETHICAL DILEMMA
- FLYING VEHICLES
- DRONES
- ASSISTED DRIVING
- INTEGRATED MULTIMODAL MOBILITY
- SELF DRIVING CAR
- RESPONSIBILITY
- SHARED TRANSPORT
- CITY TRANSFORMATION
- MOBILITY EDUCATION
Human society 2.0
- SILVER ECONOMY
- AGEING SOCIETY
- LONGEVITY
- NATALITY
- MIGRATIONS
- GRANDPARENT-GRANDCHILDREN RELATIONSHIP
- GENERATIONAL SPREAD
- PARENT-OFFSPRING RELATIONSHIP
- GENDER EQUALITY
- PET AFFECTION
- ONE-PERSON FAMILIES
- DE FACTO COUPLES
- THE POWER OF YOUTH
- FAMILY AND GENDER LIQUIDITY
PRECARIOUSNESS AND POLARISATION
- ECHO-CHAMBERS
- VULNERABILITY
- FEAR
- DOWNSIZING
- MONEY-SAVING
- FRUGALITY
- SOCIAL INSTABILITY
- LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM
- EXCLUSION
- CONFIDENCE IN «A PERSON LIKE ME»
- UNEMPLOYMENT
- PRECARIOUSNESS
- SOCIAL POLARISATION
- SOCIAL MOBILITY BLOCK
Sharing economy
- COMPLEMENTARY CURRENCY
- FROM OWNERSHIP TO USE
- SHARING MOBILITY
- PEER-TO-PEER
- CO-HOUSING
- BLOCKCHAIN
- CO-WORKING
- REPUTATION
- OPEN SOURCE
- CROWDFUNDING
- PAY PER USE
- GIG ECONOMY
- ACCESSIBILITY
- DIGITAL CURRENCIES
HYBRID CONSUMER
- GAMIFICATION
- REPUTATION
- LIQUIDITY OF TIME AND SPACE
- PROSUMER
- ANYTIME ANYWHERE ANYWAY
- SEAMLESS EXPERIENCE
- CYBER RISK
- BRICK & CLICK
- VOCAL
- DIGITAL TWINS
- WEB VITALITY
- ONLIFE
- OMNICHANNEL
- SERVICE FIDELITY
- SMARTPHONE
- VIRTUAL MOBILITY
- ON DEMAND
- OVERCONNECTED LIFE
- SNACKABLE
New skills
- COMPLEXITY MANAGEMENT
- SOFT SKILLS
- COMPETENCE GAP
- LIFELONG LEARNING
- HUMAN CAPITAL
- SMART WORKING
- DIGITAL SKILLS
- VALORISATION OF DIVERSITY
- ORGANISATIONS-ORGANISM
- AGILITY
- CONNECTIVITY
- INTEGRATED THOUGHT
- TIME
- BUSINESS ECOSYSTEM
- WORK LIFE BALANCE
- COOPETITION
- ANTIFRAGILITY
Wellbeing
- CHRONIC DISEASES
- MENTAL ILLNESSES
- PREVENTION
- WELL-AGING
- PREDICTIVE MEDICINE
- PERSONALISED MEDICINE
- PUBLIC-PRIVATE INTEGRATION
- OMICS SCIENCES
- THERAPEUTIC FREEDOM
- POLLUTION
- DIETS
- LIFE AND BEHAVIOURAL STYLES
- DRUG-RESISTANCE
- BIOTECHNOLOGIES
- CAREGIVERS
- PSYCHO-PHYSICAL WELLBEING
Intangibles
- SUSTAINABILITY
- INTANGIBLE ASSETS
- FROM THINGS TO RELATIONSHIPS
- MULTI-STAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM
- SELF-REALISATION
- QUALIFICATION
- DATA ETHICS
- PURPOSE
- ESG
- FAR-SIGHTEDNESS
- VALUES
- US
- EDUCATION
- REPUTATION
NEW FRONTIERS
- SUPPLY CHAIN
- DIVERSIFICATION
- GLOBALISATION
- PANDEMIC AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES
- PROTECTIONISM
- REGULATION
- CLIMATE CHANGE-INDUCED MIGRATION
- GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY
- CONTAMINATION
- CYBER WAR
- G-ZERO WORLD
- EUROPE SENTIMENT
- WAR-INDUCED MIGRATION
Climate change
- CLIMATE CHANGES
- CLIMATE CHANGE-INDUCED MIGRATION
- CLIMATE TRANSITION
- EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS
- SPREAD OF DISEASE
- PUBLIC-PRIVATE INTEGRATION
- CHRONICISATION OF CLIMATE EVENTS
- GREENHOUS GAS EMISSIONS
- FOOD PRODUCTION
- RESILIENCE
- INNOVATION TO ZERO
- HEALTH
NATURE AND BIODIVERSITY
- NATURE
- SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENTS
- MENTAL HEALTH
- PHYSICAL HEALTH
- SPREAD OF DISEASES
- PUBLIC-PRIVATE INTEGRATION
- NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
- PRODUCTION OF FOOD
- BIODIVERSITY
- ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
AUGMENTED MAN - CYBORG
- VIRTUAL REALITY
- AUGMENTED REALITY
- MERGED REALITY
- AUGMENTED MAN - UBIQUITY
- EXOSKELETONS
- AUGMENTED MAN - ENHANCEMENT
- AUGMENTED MAN - HEALTHCARE
- AUGMENTED MAN - MEDICAL
- AUGMENTED MAN - WORK
CIRCULAR ECONOMY
- CIRCULAR ECONOMY
- SYSTEMS THINKING
- RECYCLING
- UPCYCLING
- SECOND HAND
- PRODUCTS AS A SERVICE
- FROM THE CRADLE TO THE CRADLE
- CIRCULAR VISION
- REGENERATIVE BY DESIGN
- CIRCULARITY BY DESIGN
Space economy
- SPACE ECONOMY
- COSMIC THREATS
- SOLAR STORMS
- SATELLITE TELECOMMUNICATIONS
- SPATIAL TOURISM
- IN-ORBIT ECONOMY
- SPATIAL BIG DATA
- SPACE MINING
- MINISATELITES
- SPATIAL GEOPOLITICS AND ARMIES
- SPACE WAR
The Observatory aims to monitor the evolution of the emerging macro trends identified as well as the early signs of any new topics “to watch” and new Macro Trend to be included in the Radar.
The 17 emerging macro trends for the insurance sector
In 2015 the Observatory - in sight of the Industrial Plan 2016-2018 - produced a Report that, through the use of the predictive Meeting Point method, identified the top 10 emerging Macro Trends emergent trend destined to impact on the insurance sector and the Group in the 5 year-old horizon, tracing a Map of Interconnections to provide an integrated overview and explore the dynamics of the same, and at the same time assessing the impacts on the various stages of the insurance value chain to identify any emerging opportunities and risks.
In 2017 the Observatory prepared a new version of the 2015 Notebook, confirming the ten existing macro trends and incorporating the new emerging macro trend of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics. The evaluations of the ten existing Macro Trends were adjusted by updating the maturity of the key topics identified during the first evaluation cycle, as well as identifying focus and themes "to watch".
For the new strategic planning phase, in 2018 the Observatory prepared a new Notebook, the result of a new cycle of analysis of the predictive model Meeting Point, which identified three new macro-trends: Intangibles, Dark side of Technology and Augmented Man / Cyborg. For the other Macro Trends, specific monitoring KPIs were also introduced.
In 2020, the Observatory prepared a new edition of the Notebook for the purpose of providing an updated picture of the emerging macro-trends, evaluating the impacts of such a seriously disruptive event as the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on the new analysis, two new Macro Trends were introduced: Circular Economy and Space Economy.
In the 2024 edition of the Notebook, particular focus has been placed on the Man-Nature and Man-Technology dimensions, including by examining the “topics to watch” in relation to our country’s demographic transition in its many forms, in relation to the growing relevance of the topic of psycho-physical well-being and in relation to the impacts of advances in technology, in particular Generative AI, and their impact on society. Furthermore, a new Macro Trend has been added: “Nature and Biodiversity”, which was a Topic to Watch in the previous edition.
The Interconnection Map was also redesigned in light of the new Macro Trends identified above. The Map provides a systemic view, highlighting how the Macro Trends are connected to each other and may generate driving trends causing a potential domino effect.
The 2024 analysis confirmed interconnection as a key evaluation element, as well as the importance of a holistic approach both when interpreting the external environment and when providing an internal response.
Map of interconnections
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TO WATCH - Organizations - entities
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TO WATCH - Social Relationship Models
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TO WATCH - Digital Twins
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TO WATCH - CO2 web
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TO WATCH - Wars and Supply Chains
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TO WATCH - Healthy Aging and Technology | Pollution
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TO WATCH - Human-Centric AI | Quantum Computing
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TO WATCH - In-Orbit Economy
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