The Emerging Trend Radar
The Observatory makes is possible to fuel the Emerging Trend Radar of the Group, which maps the most material emerging trends for the Group that should be kept under observation and monitoring.
In the context of the Radar, each topic is classified based on:
- prevailing nature: the radar is divided into four quadrants that correspond to the four dimensions of the external environment: social, technological, environmental and political (STEP);
- level of maturity: in the innermost circle the radar includes the emerging themes that are material for the insurance sector within the next 5 years and in the outer circle the emerging themes that will become material after 5 years.
Dark Side of Technology
- TECHNO-ADDICTION
- PATHOLOGIES
- GOING BACK TO NATURE
- BIOLOGICAL CLOCK
- DIGITAL DETOX
- DISTRACTIONS
- FAKE NEWS
- REGULATION OF TECHNOLOGY
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) AND ROBOTICS
- ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
- MACHINE LEARNING
- DEEP LEARNING
- BOT ECONOMY
- CHATBOTS
- ETHICAL DILEMMA
- RESPONSIBILITY
- ROBOTICS
- MAN–MACHINE RELATIONS
- ROBOT ADVISORS
- ROBOT CAREGIVERS
- ROBOT-ASSISTED TREATMENT
Internet of everything
- 5G & BEYOND
- SMART CARS
- SMART CITIES
- SMART OBJECTS
- SMART HOMES
- QUANTIFIED SELF
- SMART OFFICES
- WEARABLES
- INTERNET OF PETS
- INTEROPERABILITY
- IoT
- NEW COMPUTATIONAL FRONTIERS
- INDUSTRY 4.0
- DATA AS NEW CURRENCY
- BIO COMPUTING
- QUANTUM COMPUTING
- CONTAGION
- CYBER RISK
- PRIVACY
- BIG DATA
New mobility
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES
- HYBRID VEHICLES
- SMART CARS
- HYDROGEN MOBILITY
- MOBILITY AS A SERVICE
- MICROMOBILITY
- ETHICAL DILEMMAS
- FLYING VEHICLES
- DRONES
- ASSISTED DRIVING
- INTEGRATED MULTI-MODAL MOBILITY
- SELF DRIVING CAR
- RESPONSIBILITIES
- SHARED MOBILITY
- TRANSFORMATION OF CITIES
Human society 2.0
- SILVER ECONOMY
- AGEING SOCIETY
- LONGEVITY
- BIRTH RATE
- MIGRATIONS
- GRANDPARENT-GRANDCHILD RELATIONSHIPS
- GENERATION GAP
- PARENT-CHILD RELATIONSHIPS
- WOMEN’S EMPOWERMENT
- PET AFFECTION
- SINGLES
- FAMILY 2.0
- DE FACTO RELATIONSHIPS
- ENLARGED FAMILIES
- NEW GENERATIONS
- THE POWER OF YOUTH
- FAMILY LIQUIDITY
JOB INSECURITY AND POLARIZATION
- ECHO-CHAMBERS
- VULNERABILITY
- FEAR
- DOWNSIZING
- MONEY SAVINGS
- FRUGALITY
- SOCIAL INSTABILITY
- DISTRUST VS. SYSTEM
- EXCLUSION
- TRUST VS. «A PERSON LIKE ME»
- UNEMPLOYMENT
- JOB INSECURITY
- SOCIAL POLARIZATION
Sharing economy
- BARTERING
- FROM OWNERSHIP TO USE
- RECYCLING
- SHARING
- SHARING MOBILITY
- PEER-TO-PEER
- CO-HOUSING
- BLOCKCHAIN
- CO-WORKING
- REPUTATION
- CLOUD
- OPEN SOURCE
- CROWDFUNDING
- PAY PER USE
- GIG ECONOMY
- ACCESS
- CRYPTOCURRENCIES
HYBRID CONSUMER
- GAMIFICATION
- REPUTATION
- LIQUIDITY TIME AND SPACE
- PROSUMER
- ANYTIME ANYWHERE ANYWAY
- SEAMLESS EXPERIENCE
- CYBER RISK
- BRICK & CLICK
- VOICE
- CONTAGEON
- WEB VITALITY
- ONLINE
- OMNICHANNEL
- LOYALTY VS. SERVICE
- SMARTPHONES
- VIRTUAL MOBILITY
- ON DEMAND
- OVERCONNECTED LIFE
- SNACKABLE
New skills
- COMPLEXITY MANAGEMENT
- SOFT SKILLS
- SKILLS GAP
- LONGLIFE LEARNING
- HUMAN CAPITAL
- SMART WORKING
- DIGITAL SKILLS
- DIVERSITY
- AGILITY
- CONNECTIVITY
- INTEGRATED THINKING
- TIME
- BUSINESS ECOSYSTEM
- WORK LIFE BALANCE
- COOPETITION
- ANTIFRAGILITY
WELL BE
- CHRONIC DISEASES
- MENTAL ILLNESSES
- PREVENTION
- WELLNESS
- PREDICTIVE MEDICINE
- PERSONALIZED MEDICINE
- INTEGRATION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS
- OMIC SCIENCES
- THERAPEUTIC FREEDOM
- CIRCADIAN RHYTHMS
- FOOD REGIMES
- LIFESTYLE AND BEHAVIORAL STYLE
- DRUG RESISTANCE
- SILENCE & MEDITATION
- BIOTECHNOLOGY
- CAREGIVERS
Intangibles
- SUSTAINABILITY
- INTANGIBLE ASSETS
- FROM THINGS TO RELATIONSHIPS
- MULTISTAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM
- SELF-FULFILMENT
- EMPOWERMENT
- DATA ETHICS
- PURPOSE
- ESG
- FORESIGHT
- VALUES
- US
- REPUTATION
NEW FRONTIERS
- GROWTH
- DIVERSIFICATION
- GLOBALIZATION
- GLOBAL PANDEMICS
- PROTECTIONISM
- REGULATION
- GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY
- CONTAGION
- CYBER RISK
- G-ZERO WORLD
- FEELING EUROPEAN
- CONFLICT MIGRATIONS
Climate change
- CLIMATE CHANGES
- CLIMATE MIGRATIONS
- CLIMATE TRANSITION
- EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS
- SPREAD OF DISEASES
- INTEGRATION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS
- CHRONICIZATION CLIMATE
- GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
- FOOD PRODUCTION
- BIODIVERSITY
- RESILIENCE
- INNOVATING TO ZERO
- MANAGEMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES
AUGMENTED MAN CYBORG
- VIRTUAL REALITY
- AUGMENTED REALITY
- MERGED REALITY
- AUGMENTED MAN UBIQUITY
- AUGMENTED MAN ENHANCEMENT
- AUGMENTED MAN TREATMENT
- AUGMENTED MAN DOCTOR
- AUGMENTED MAN WORK
Circular economy
- CIRCULAR ECONOMY
- SYSTEMIC THINKING
- RICYCLING
- UPCYCLING
- PRODUCTS AS A SERVICE
- FROM CRADLE TO CRADLE
- CIRCULAR VISION
- RIGENERATIVO BY DESIGN
Space economy
- SPACE ECONOMY
- COSMIC THREATS
- SOLAR STORMS
- TELECOMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE
- BIG DATA SPACE
- SPACE MINING
- MINISATELLITES
- GEOPOLITICS AND SPACE ARMIES
The Observatory aims to monitor the evolution of the emerging macro trends identified as well as the early signs of any new topics “to watch” and new macro trend to be included in the Radar.
The 16 emerging macro trends for the insurance sector
In 2015 the Observatory - in sight of the Industrial Plan 2016-2018 - produced a Report that, through the use of the predictive Meeting Point method, identified the top 10 emerging macro trends emergent trend destined to impact on the insurance sector and the Group in the 5 year-old horizon, tracing a Map of Interconnections to provide an integrated overview and explore the dynamics of the same, and at the same time assessing the impacts on the various stages of the insurance value chain to identify any emerging opportunities and risks.
In 2017 the Observatory prepared a new version of the 2015 Report, confirming the ten existing macro trends and incorporating the new emerging macro trend of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics. The evaluations of the ten existing Macro Trends were adjusted by updating the maturity of the key topics identified during the first evaluation cycle, as well as identifying focus points, new case studies and themes "to watch".
For the new strategic planning phase, in 2018 the Observatory prepared a new Notebook, the result of a new cycle of analysis of the predictive model Meeting Point, which identified three new macro-trends: Intangibles, Dark side of Technology and Augmented Man / Cyborg. For the other macro-trends, specific monitoring KPIs were also introduced.
In 2020, the Observatory prepared a new edition of the Notebook for the purpose of providing an updated picture of the emerging macro-trends, evaluating the impacts of such a seriously disruptive event as the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on the new analysis, two new macro-trends were introduced: Circular Economy and Space Economy.
The Interconnection Map was also redesigned in light of the new macro-trends identified above. The map provides a systemic view, highlighting how the macro-trends are connected to each other and may generate driving trends causing a potential domino effect.
The 2020 analysis confirmed interconnection as a key evaluation element, as well as the importance of a holistic approach both when interpreting the external environment and when providing an internal response.
Map of interconnections
Environmental Technological Political
This includes the themes of the Internet of Things, in particular focusing on the black box but also on other household-related devices (home automation and smart cities), businesses, people (health and welfare) and big data. In the area of threats, it includes the theme of personal data protection (privacy), in addition to data security and cyber-crime. It includes the emerging themes of Industry 4.0 and the new computational frontiers.
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This concerns the need for new skills to react to changing trends and new organisational paradigms based on agility and resilience. It includes the themes of skills gap, lifelong learning, remote working and organisational agility, resilience, blending of skills and enhancement of diversity. In this area, it focuses on the growing importance of learning from the external environment by acquiring “clocks functioning at multiple speeds”.
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This concerns the new mobility models, the evolution of mobility-related technology and its impact on the insurance sector. It includes new mobility behaviours, from micro-mobility to the “Mobility-as-a-Service” (MaaS) model and the evolution of car technology, focusing in particular on driverless cars.
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This includes aspects linked to population longevity and aging (longevity, management of the elderly, silver economy, value of children, fertility), progressive generational change with a gap between the various generations and the “power of the youth”, trends linked to immigration and multiculturalism (cultural and religious blending), evolution of family units and social networks (extended families, unmarried couples, singles, parent-child relationships, grandparent-grandchild relationships, women’s empowerment, work-life balance, pet affection, household and gender liquidity).
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This concerns the hybridisation of the relationship with customers into a customer journey with no discernible difference between actual and virtual reality. It includes the following themes: web vitality, mobile Internet, virtual mobility, “onlife”, perpetual connectivity, access to “anytime, anyway, anywhere” services, e-commerce, domestic time, access hours to financial services, time management savings, cyberspace credibility and security. This macro-trend also analyses the emerging figure of the “prosumer” in terms of role, behaviour and values. In this context, it focuses on the phenomenon of the transition from “feedback” to “feedforward” and on the evolution of the insured-insurer relationship in view of creating an “us”.
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This includes the following themes: climate change, extreme climate events, greenhouse gas emissions, dispersal of animal species, insects and microorganisms, spread of new diseases (for the part related to climate change).
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This concerns internationalisation both in view of a growth and consolidation strategy of the insurance business and in view of support to corporate and SME customers (need to provide risk protection and management services on an international level and support for the development and internationalisation process of SMEs) and retail customers (e.g. education abroad). It includes the risk of contagion, Europe’s sentiment, the growing political instability and the transition to a multipolar order, as well as the spread of disease resulting from globalisation. It focuses on global governance in the face of emerging challenges and the risk of fragmentation of tariffs, cyberspace and space supremacy.
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This includes the themes of fear, sense of vulnerability, unemployment and job insecurity, social polarisation and tensions. Social polarisation is explored in its many forms, which have extended from the economic and financial dimension to other more intangible dimensions with impacts in terms of access to opportunities and “future enablement”. It also includes the themes of downsizing and money management savings.
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This concerns the increasingly important theme of health, understood in a more holistic sense as psycho-physical well-being. It includes the phenomenon of health being increasingly tailored to the patient, touching on topics such as developments in biotechnology, omics sciences, “P4” medicine (personalised, preventive, predictive and participatory), the “quantified self” phenomenon, “well-aging” and, in the area of personalisation and prevention, circadian rhythms, lifestyle and food habits, therapeutic freedom, addictions. It also includes the growing significance of chronic and mental illnesses, as well as the theme of drug resistance. It addresses the issue of public-private (multi-pillar) integration and the rebalancing of welfare actions between the State, the Market and collaborative economies.
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This concerns the phenomenon of our society’s transformation into a “smart economy” or “oracular society” driven by predictive algorithms, thus creating new opportunities and new challenges. It investigates ethical dilemmas and the man-machine relationship.
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This concerns the phenomenon of the empowerment of man through an increasingly symbiotic man-machine relationship, being explored in various areas: for the purpose of treatment (on the side of both the patient and the doctor), work, ubiquity, up to the future frontiers of augmented man for the enhancement of physical and cognitive functions and the emergence of a cyborg “species”. It includes the themes of virtual reality and augmented reality.
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This concerns the dark side of technology, which is increasingly emerging after a phase in which technology has expanded massively and pervasively. It manifests itself in many forms, from techno-addiction and dangers for the youth, to fake news and fake videos, to ethical issues related to the man-machine relationship, hacking risks and privacy intrusion.
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This includes the metamorphosis of assets from tangible to intangible, the evolution of needs from the sphere of security to that of self-realisation and enrichment of assessment and reporting metrics with environmental, social and governance (ESG factors) factors in view of a long-term sustainability. In this context, it focuses on the growing importance of reputation, understood as trust capital, in which ethics play a central role.
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This concerns the transition from the traditional model with a linear shape, Take-Make-Waste, and that generates waste, to a new model with a circular shape, where, thanks to the distinction between biological and technical cycles, waste is eliminated “by design” because everything becomes nourishment for one or the other cycle, returning back to the circle of value through regeneration, reuse, recovery, sharing or recycling. “Circular production chain”, “Recovery and recycling”, “Life-cycle extension”, “Sharing platforms”, “Product as a service” are circular business models. To be accompanied by a new thought process, also circular, which does not separate and fragment but is capable of viewing the economy, the society and the environment as closely connected and interdependent systems.
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This concerns the economy of Space, in particular with reference to the generation of enabled innovative products and services (referred to as “downstream”), such as advanced telecommunications, navigation and positioning, integration of space Big Data with terrestrial Big Data, environmental and climate monitoring, weather forecasting, space tourism, mining (space mining) and protection from the risk of impact of asteroids with the Earth and other cosmic threats, such solar storms. In this area, it focuses on nano-satellite technology and on growing access for the private sector.This concerns the economy of Space, in particular with reference to the generation of enabled innovative products and services (referred to as “downstream”), such as advanced telecommunications, navigation and positioning, integration of space Big Data with terrestrial Big Data, environmental and climate monitoring, weather forecasting, space tourism, mining (space mining) and protection from the risk of impact of asteroids with the Earth and other cosmic threats, such solar storms. In this area, it focuses on nano-satellite technology and on growing access for the private sector.
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