The Emerging Trend Radar

The Observatory makes is possible to fuel the Emerging Trend Radar of the Group, which maps the most material emerging trends for the Group that should be kept under observation and monitoring.

In the context of the Radar, each topic is classified based on:

• prevailing nature: the radar is divided into four quadrants that correspond to the four dimensions of the external environment: social, technological, environmental and political (STEP);
• level of maturity: in the innermost circle the radar includes the emerging themes that are material for the insurance sector within the next 5 years and in the outer circle the emerging themes that will become material after 5 years.

The Observatory aims to monitor the evolution of the emerging macro trends identified as well as the early signs of any new topics “to watch” and new Macro Trend to be included in the Radar.

The 17 emerging macro trends for the insurance sector

In 2015 the Observatory - in sight of the Industrial Plan 2016-2018 - produced a Report that, through the use of the predictive Meeting Point method, identified the top 10 emerging Macro Trends emergent trend destined to impact on the insurance sector and the Group in the 5 year-old horizon, tracing a Map of Interconnections to provide an integrated overview and explore the dynamics of the same, and at the same time assessing the impacts on the various stages of the insurance value chain to identify any emerging opportunities and risks.

In 2017 the Observatory prepared a new version of the 2015 Notebook, confirming the ten existing macro trends and incorporating the new emerging macro trend of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics. The evaluations of the ten existing Macro Trends were adjusted by updating the maturity of the key topics identified during the first evaluation cycle, as well as identifying focus and themes "to watch". 

For the new strategic planning phase, in 2018 the Observatory prepared a new Notebook, the result of a new cycle of analysis of the predictive model Meeting Point, which identified three new macro-trends: Intangibles, Dark side of Technology and Augmented Man / Cyborg. For the other Macro Trends, specific monitoring KPIs were also introduced.

In 2020, the Observatory prepared a new edition of the Notebook for the purpose of providing an updated picture of the emerging macro-trends, evaluating the impacts of such a seriously disruptive event as the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on the new analysis, two new Macro Trends were introduced: Circular Economy and Space Economy.

In the 2024 edition of the Notebook, particular focus has been placed on the Man-Nature and Man-Technology dimensions, including by examining the “topics to watch” in relation to our country’s demographic transition in its many forms, in relation to the growing relevance of the topic of psycho-physical well-being and in relation to the impacts of advances in technology, in particular Generative AI, and their impact on society. Furthermore, a new Macro Trend has been added: “Nature and Biodiversity”, which was a Topic to Watch in the previous edition. 

The Interconnection Map was also redesigned in light of the new Macro Trends identified above. The Map provides a systemic view, highlighting how the Macro Trends are connected to each other and may generate driving trends causing a potential domino effect.

The 2024 analysis confirmed interconnection as a key evaluation element, as well as the importance of a holistic approach both when interpreting the external environment and when providing an internal response.